Cone (center path)Forecast trackPrevious advisory (3)Past track39+ mph winds58+ mph winds74+ mph windsHurricane watchTrop. storm watch
Saffir–SimpsonTDTS12345D depression · S storm · H hurricane · M major
Drag the clock to move through NHC’s forecast. Between its forecast points the position and wind are our straight-line estimate (marked ≈); wind fields are NHC’s, out to day 3. NHC advisory 4A · 100 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026.
Closest forecast approach to Stump Pass
~340 mi west of Stump Pass
Fri 6 PM ET — in about 2 days · forecast 106 mph Cat 2
~10 mi farther than NHC's previous forecast (Advisory 3)
NHC puts the chance of tropical-storm-force winds (39+ mph) at Stump Pass below 5% on this advisory. Rain bands, surf and higher water can still reach well beyond that line.
That puts Stump Pass on the storm’s east side — the side with the onshore wind, the higher water and the outer rain bands that can spin up tornadoes. Distance from the line undersells it.
Measured to NHC’s forecast center line. The storm is hundreds of miles wide, the center tracks outside the cone about a third of the time, and surge depends on angle and side, not distance. Use your county’s watches, warnings and evacuation orders — not this number — to make decisions.
