The Florida Keys
Big Pine Key Fishing Forecast
Should you go? A straight answer for Big Pine — scored 0–100 from the actual wind, tide movement, seas, sky and barometer, not just moon tables. Built around bonefish, permit, tarpon.
Today on the water
TodayWorth a trip — 11 mph E, gusts 25, 1.9 ft tide falling through sunrise, 3.8 ft seas.
Boating: Choppy · seas ~3.8 ft · 1.9 ft of tide
Today’s bite windows
- 6–9 AMGoodfalling tide + first light
- 5–8 PMGoodmoon overhead or underfoot + last light
Wind against tide: 4–7 AM — 20 mph E into the outgoing tide (rough); 8–9 AM — 14 mph SE into the outgoing tide. Expect steep, close-together waves in the pass on that stretch.
What’s driving it
- Wind11 mph E, gusts 25
- Tide1.9 ft range · 2 in daylight
- Seas3.8 ft @ 5 s, short and steep
- Sky50% rain chance
- Barometer+0.02 inHg over the day
- Moonwaning gibbous
The week ahead
Best day this week: Tuesday (83/100, prime) — 6 mph SE, 1.6 ft tide falling through sunrise, 0.7 ft seas, falling barometer.
| Day | Fishing | Boating | Wind | Tide swing | Seas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 66 Good | Choppy | 11 mph, gusts 25 | 1.9 ft | 3.8 ft |
| Sat, 10/3 | 63 Fair | Choppy | 13 mph, gusts 22 | 1.8 ft | 3.6 ft |
| Sun, 10/4 | 70 Good | Good | 11 mph, gusts 20 | 1.7 ft | 2.8 ft |
| Mon, 10/5 | 78 Good | Great | 9 mph, gusts 13 | 1.7 ft | 1.8 ft |
| Tue, 10/6★ best | 83 Prime | Great | 6 mph, gusts 9 | 1.6 ft | 0.7 ft |
| Wed, 10/7 | 82 Prime | Great | 5 mph, gusts 10 | 1.6 ft | 1.2 ft |
| Thu, 10/8 | 80 Prime | Great | 8 mph, gusts 11 | 1.6 ft | 1 ft |
Ratings refresh through the day as the forecast models update. The dashboard shows the same scores with the charts behind them.
Best time to fish Big Pine
Clear, low water on a calm morning is ideal for spotting tailing bonefish and permit.
On any given day, the windows above are the honest answer: they weight moving water first — the middle hours of a falling or incoming tide — then the solunar periods (moon overhead and underfoot), first and last light, and they subtract for wind that makes the water unfishable and for lightning. A slow day still shows its best hour or two, because that’s when you’d go.
How the rating works
Every day gets a 0–100 score from the same data the rest of Salty Forecast runs on: wind carries the most weight (32%), because it decides whether you can even fish, then tide movement (26%), seas at the nearest offshore buoy (12%), and sky, barometer and moon phase (10% each). A falling barometer ahead of a front scores high; a hard post-frontal rise scores low. Nothing here is a black box — the factor bars above show exactly what helped and what hurt.
Generic solunar calculators give Big Pine the same “activity” times as a lake in Ohio, because they only look at the moon. The moon matters — it’s in here — but a 20 mph wind or 4-foot seas beats it every time, and that’s why this score reads the whole picture.
Live now on the dashboard
The full Big Pine dashboard has this rating beside live radar, the tide curve, hourly wind and the 14-day outlook — free, no account.
Open the live Big Pine dashboard →Common questions
- Is today a good day to fish Big Pine?
- Today rates 66/100 (good). Worth a trip — 11 mph E, gusts 25, 1.9 ft tide falling through sunrise, 3.8 ft seas. This updates through the day as the forecast models refresh.
- What time should I fish Big Pine today?
- Today's best windows are 6–9 AM (falling tide + first light) and 5–8 PM (moon overhead or underfoot + last light). Moving water is the biggest single factor — the middle of a tide swing beats slack water almost everywhere.
- What's the best day to fish Big Pine this week?
- Tuesday looks strongest at 83/100 (prime) — 6 mph SE, 1.6 ft tide falling through sunrise, 0.7 ft seas, falling barometer. The week-ahead table above updates as the outlook firms up.
- How is this different from a solunar calendar?
- Solunar tables only track the moon, so every town gets the same "activity" times. This rating starts with what actually cancels trips — wind, seas and lightning — then adds real NOAA tide movement, barometric trend and the moon. When a day scores Prime here, it means the whole picture lines up, not just the calendar.
Nearby fishing forecasts
More for Big Pine: fishing weather · tide chart
Scored from the Open-Meteo model blend, NOAA tide predictions and the marine wave model. A planning aid, not a guarantee — fish don’t read forecasts, and neither wind nor lightning cares about your plans. Check conditions before you run.